Local view for "http://purl.org/linkedpolitics/eu/plenary/2013-03-13-Speech-3-015-000"
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"en.20130313.6.3-015-000"2
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"Mr President, I have read President Barroso’s letter to the Council, and I have to say that I think it is in complete contradiction with the figures attached in the annexes. I do not think it is any longer simply a case of the Commission pursuing wrong-headed economic policies, but more a case of unjustified, needlessly destructive policies based on groundless economic optimism. I cannot see how we can trust the Commission’s figures any longer.
In October 2011, the Commission predicted a 0.6% growth rate for 2012 for the eurozone. It now estimates the outcome at -0.6% – an error of 1.2%. Last October, the Commission predicted a mild economic recovery for this year. That is the mistaken projection on which the current annual growth survey is based. It now acknowledges that the reality will be a contraction of at least 0.3%. All of the economies usually held up as virtuous in the euro zone are set to perform much worse than in 2011 after a bad 2012. Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland are all set to experience very low growth this year. Add to that the -1% recession predicted for Italy, and the zero growth expected in France, and there is in fact no room for optimism.
The predicted upswing of 1.4% for 2014 is hopelessly optimistic. More likely, 2014 will see a very limited recovery, if we are lucky. Serious downward risks remain for a number of major economies: Italy, Spain and, to some extent, France. Furthermore, these projections take no account of new austerity measures in preparation in France, or those to be expected later this year in Italy.
President Barroso, as you know, we in this group became so despairing of the Commission’s economic modelling that we commissioned a number of outside independent economic institutes to produce our own independent annual growth survey. Virtually without exception, the figures they give us show yours to be unreasonably optimistic. It seems clear that we will experience another year of recession this year, with at least -0.5% recession. Tragically, that will push unemployment up still further, perhaps beyond 13% next year, with 30 million unemployed.
I want to come to two points you highlight in your letter. The first is the challenge of competitiveness, where again you home in on the structural reform agenda. I put it to you, President Barroso, that your policies are today one of Europe’s worst competitiveness problems. By needlessly driving the eurozone into two extra years of recession, you have caused enormous damage to our future growth potential. The loss of investment, skills and human potential dwarves the gains you look for from structural reform.
The second thing I want to focus on is youth unemployment. At long last, we now have agreement on a Youth Guarantee. We have 7.5 million 15-to-25-year-olds outside of employment, education or training. The cost of that is estimated at a staggering EUR 153 billion a year. How much does the MFF allocate to the Youth Guarantee? EUR 6 billion. The ILO estimates that at least EUR 21 billion will be necessary to fund the Guarantee.
I do not blame the Commission for the funding decisions on the Youth Guarantee, but I do blame you, President Barroso, for the damaging policies inflicted on the European economy as a result of mistaken economic projections. The Commission could well become a laughing stock. There is now a website called ‘The Folly from Olli’. Look it up. It is devoted to the consistently wrong economic projections coming from the office of Olli Rehn. However, this is no laughing matter. The human misery being caused is enormous. President Barroso, if you were a Prime Minister and Olli Rehn was your Finance Minister, and he was getting things so consistently wrong, you would reshuffle him out of the way to stop this damage. We think that is what you must do now, or maybe take full responsibility for these matters yourself.
Finally, a brief word on Hungary. We in this group, and the Liberals, wanted to have a separate debate on the deplorable developments there. That has not proved possible for a number of reasons. But we sincerely hope, President Barroso, that you will take the opportunity in your speech to the Council to condemn the developments in Hungary, which so undermine our fundamental values."@en1
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