Local view for "http://purl.org/linkedpolitics/eu/plenary/2011-09-14-Speech-3-008-000"
| Predicate | Value (sorted: default) |
|---|---|
| rdf:type | |
| dcterms:Date | |
| dcterms:Is Part Of | |
| dcterms:Language | |
| lpv:document identification number |
"en.20110914.3.3-008-000"2
|
| lpv:hasSubsequent | |
| lpv:speaker | |
| lpv:translated text |
"Mr President, honourable Members, 219 years ago, on 11 July 1792 in Paris, the Legislative Assembly issued a declaration which began with the words
‘the nation is under threat’. I think that we are in no doubt, today, we cannot be in any doubt, and I will say this in French:
‘Europe is under threat’. Only two months later, a brief skirmish took place at Valmy and the French Republic was saved. That was in September 1792. We are still a long way from victory, and I would like, today, to outline the dangers facing Europe, us, Parliament and the institutions.
Firstly, I think we must clearly and unambiguously say that if it were not for the vital interventions of the European Central Bank in August this year, which were fully justified from the technical, legal and political point of view – I will come back to these three in a moment – we would not, today, be looking with alarm at an approaching hurricane, we would already be in the middle of it. I am in no doubt that in those highly charged days the European Central Bank, and in particular its President Jean-Claude Trichet, saved Europe. The technical justification for the interventions which were begun then and which continue today is fairly obvious, and at the same time also constitutes their legal justification.
The level of uncertainty and the level of fear which exist in the markets as a result of apprehension over the enormous upheavals which might very naturally engulf Europe are making the normal operation of monetary policy impossible. How can the Central Bank influence and ensure price stability if the normal transmission channel – adjustment of interest rates and the Central Bank’s money supply – does not affect what is done by European families or European businesses, or obviously at the most important and fundamental level if it does not affect the behaviour of European commercial banks? All these participants in Europe’s economic life are conscious of the dangers, and this being the case they do not know if they should hold on to their money, which makes the normal function of transmission mechanisms impossible, or get rid of their money, which could result in the danger of inflation. In this situation of uncertainty the first duty of the Central Bank must be to protect transmission mechanisms and secure stability. For this we must not only be grateful to the European Central Bank, but we must also firmly and clearly back its decisions.
I think it is also worth thinking about what would happen if we were to allow a gradual disintegration of the euro area – if some countries, the poorer and weaker ones, were pushed out of the euro area, or if other, wealthier countries themselves decided to leave the euro area. I am sure the Members of this House are familiar with the analysis conducted recently and published by the Swiss bank UBS. According to these calculations, if a poor country, a country which is in trouble, were to leave the euro area or be pushed out of the euro area, the costs for that country could reach 40-50% of its GDP in the first year and then be from between 10% to 20% of GDP annually. If a rich country decided to leave the euro area, the costs in the first year would be 20-25% of GDP, and after that GDP would be permanently at a level 10% lower than it is now.
Those figures may seem abstract. Let us think more carefully about what would happen to unemployment in the wealthier countries, in a country such as Germany, or if the budget of a large member of the euro area ran out of money or if such a country were to leave the euro area. Of course, we do not know exactly what the consequences would be, but it seems to me that a level of unemployment significantly higher than 15% is the least we could fear in such a situation.
What is more, we can also be of the opinion that a continuation of the crisis as it is, in its current unspecified and unfinished form, will also unavoidably cause – if it were to continue as it is, and of course it is doubtful if a situation in which the crisis remains unresolved is possible – but if this situation were to continue for a year or two, we would have to reckon with a very, very significant rise in unemployment, perhaps even a doubling of current levels, and this would also happen in the wealthiest countries.
In view of this, Poland, as the country holding the Presidency and as a Member State, fully supports all efforts to overcome the crisis by further integration of the euro area. However, we must remember that this process should not be used to create a two-speed Europe. We must, of course, save Europe at all costs, but we ought – working together as the 17 – to do only that which is necessary to save the euro area and so to save Europe, because, and let us not fool ourselves, if the euro area were to collapse, Europe would not last long after such a shock and all of its dramatic political consequences. This is why in closing I would like to appeal for rapid agreement on the six-pack. The differences between Parliament and the Council are now truly minimal. We must send a clear signal that we can work together by taking the six-pack quickly through to completion.
I will end with a personal anecdote. At the airport last week, I met a friend who worked with me in the Ministry of Finance during the first years of Poland’s transformation. Today, he is the President of a large Polish bank. We were talking about the crisis in the euro area, and he said, ‘You know, economic and political upheavals like this are usually followed 10 years later by a catastrophic descent into war. I am seriously thinking about getting a green card for my children in the United States.’ Ladies and gentlemen, honourable Members, we must not allow this to happen."@en1
|
| lpv:unclassifiedMetadata | |
| lpv:videoURI |
Named graphs describing this resource:
The resource appears as object in 2 triples