Local view for "http://purl.org/linkedpolitics/eu/plenary/2009-01-14-Speech-3-465"
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"en.20090114.21.3-465"2
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".
Mr President, Belarus was going to be immune to the worldwide financial crisis. This overconfident prognosis is now costing Mr Lukashenko dearly at the beginning of 2009. His government is in critical financial trouble. Minsk has been knocking on the door of the IMF, Moscow and even Washington for billions in credit. The IMF’s condition was the devaluation of the Belarusian rouble by no less than 20.5% on 2 January. Today, the Belarusian citizens are visibly filled with fear, and understandably so, if one realises that the average monthly salary has suddenly dropped from USD 400 to USD 333, the dollar being, alongside the euro, a much-desired currency in Minsk and far beyond today.
Might this decline in the Belarusian economic position put paid to the chance of a new domestic and foreign orientation of the Lukashenko Government? This is certainly not an imaginary risk, because, quite apart from the current financial problems, a cosmetic change of course on the part of Mr Lukashenko in the direction of the West is just as plausible. In that case, the powerful president would simply replace his strategy of simulated integration with Russia with simulated
to the European Union. The forthcoming gas negotiations with Russia could well give such simulation an extra boost.
The European Union should use a balanced strategy to resist an undesired political scenario of this kind in Minsk. To this end, all European institutions need to contact all Belarusian institutions, including the state authorities, the opposition forces, civil society, and even the non-working population. This is an inspiring European goal which hopes to develop, and build bridges in, contacts with all sections of Belarusian society."@en1
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