Local view for "http://purl.org/linkedpolitics/eu/plenary/2004-10-25-Speech-1-101"
| Predicate | Value (sorted: default) |
|---|---|
| rdf:type | |
| dcterms:Date | |
| dcterms:Is Part Of | |
| dcterms:Language | |
| lpv:document identification number |
"en.20041025.15.1-101"2
|
| lpv:hasSubsequent | |
| lpv:speaker | |
| lpv:translated text |
"Mr President, ladies and gentlemen, the price of oil has risen considerably this year, reaching historic highs – in dollars – in nominal terms. Its impact on the economy is largely due to the marked rise of recent months, since, if we take account of the evolution of the euro-dollar exchange rate and inflation, the current level of real prices, in euros, is comparable to that of 2000.
Finally, and looking to the future, it is important that we continue with the reforms initiated in the past within the European Union with a view to improving our energy efficiency, because in that way we will improve the capacity of our economies to deal with external economic disturbances, such as this rise in oil prices, and, at the same time, by adopting these energy efficiency measures, we will increase the long-term growth potential of the Union's economies.
The expectation in the very short term is that the price of a barrel of oil will remain high, due to the greater than expected rise in demand, particularly the demand from the large Asian countries and, in particular, China, and due to a lack of additional capacity to increase supply in the short term and to global and regional political uncertainties, particularly the conflict in Iraq of course.
The upwards tendency has furthermore been exacerbated by certain speculative movements, attracted by the price volatility resulting from the uncertainty factors I have just mentioned. This increase is clearly having a negative impact on growth during 2004 and on the growth forecast for next year. The oil price in dollars is now 60% higher than was forecast six months ago, when the Commission published its spring economic forecasts. Tomorrow, the Commission will publish its autumn economic forecasts, which include an estimate of the oil price, which of course is greater than the estimate six months ago.
According to the ECOFIN Directorate-General’s econometric simulations model, if the price of a barrel of oil stays at 50 dollars – and today I believe a barrel of Brent stands at over 51 dollars – the effect would be an accumulated growth loss over three years of almost one point of gross domestic product, if the price of a barrel remains at 50 dollars throughout that period. In fact, the economic forecasts the Commission will present tomorrow have been based on the assumption of a higher oil price than in the spring, although it is also the case that, with regard to the estimates of the macroeconomic model, our forecasts for the evolution of the oil price for 2005 and 2006 are slightly more optimistic. We are not, therefore, expecting this level of 50 dollars to be maintained, but rather we expect it to decrease gradually.
Even so, despite this negative impact, the European economies are in a position to endure this price increase, thanks, in particular, to two factors. On the one hand, the real price of oil – as I have said – is considerably lower than previous highs. Not only is it no higher than that of 2000, but it is also very much lower than the high reached in real terms in 1981 and is also noticeably lower than that reached in 1973, more than 30 years ago. Furthermore, the European economies, over the intervening 30 years, have considerably increased their energy efficiency, reducing their dependence on oil when compared to the eighties, which makes us less vulnerable to increases in energy prices. In addition to this, the significant changes to the nature of salaries in the European economies, which are now less linked to the evolution of prices, must lessen the secondary effects of the increase in energy prices or inflation, which the President of the European Central Bank has mentioned this afternoon. Unlike in previous crises, so far at least, inflation is not expected to increase, despite the increases in oil prices.
Having said this, we must recognise, Mr President, that certain sectors are being particularly affected as a result of their characteristics and specific circumstances, and I am referring, of course, as does the title of this debate, to agriculture and fisheries. The Commission is perfectly aware of the specific difficulties that arise in these sectors as a result of increased fuel prices. In both cases, producers in the agricultural and fisheries sectors have little capacity to pass on increases in their costs through their prices. There is therefore no doubt about the need for specific action and the Commission, in response to last week’s request from the Eurogroup, has agreed to present the Eurogroup and Ecofin with a report next month on the measures States may take in accordance with the rules of the Treaty, without thereby violating the legislation in force in the field of state aid and respecting the principle which we believe to be essential in the Economic and Monetary Union, which is that individual initiatives by Member States must be coordinated in order to prevent distortions of competition.
As well as asking the Commission for this report, the Finance Ministers once again emphasised the need not to adopt unilateral measures and for any possibility of measures affecting competition to be dealt with firstly by means of a prior consultation and coordination mechanism.
Before ending my first speech, I would like, if you will allow me, to stress two elements relating to the European economy in a more general sense. Firstly, I should stress that the appropriate polices for ensuring the stability of the energy supply are being adequately applied and coordinated at international, Community and national levels and, naturally, we must make it very clear that there is absolutely no reason to fear problems with energy supply in the industrialised countries, since the current level of strategic oil reserves, both in the United States and in the European Union or in other OECD countries, will allow us to deal with problems with the supply of crude over a long period of time, should they arise.
It is important to remember this, since the perceived risk of a possible scarcity of crude oil in the future is contributing to high oil prices, and I do not believe this fear to be justified given the way the market operates and the level of strategic reserves."@en1
|
Named graphs describing this resource:
The resource appears as object in 2 triples