Local view for "http://purl.org/linkedpolitics/eu/plenary/2001-05-15-Speech-2-249"
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"en.20010515.10.2-249"2
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".
I shall first give an indirect reply to your first question by saying that that the exchange rates applied to the Union as an average
clearly
do not correspond to the specific countries which make up the Union. And if we apply the traditional monetary theory, it is clear that those countries with a higher level of inflation, with greater growth, require more restrictive monetary policies in order to prevent processes of overheating. The conclusion can clearly be deduced from the comments I have just made.
The problem of the exchange rate has given rise to much discussion and debate, given that the exchange rate cannot be modified, being irrevocable, and given that the problem in Ireland would be resolved by a modification of the exchange rate. Higher inflation and, to a certain extent, a re-evaluation of the exchange rate, will not go any way towards resolving its problems. Nor will these approaches help us achieve greater equilibrium in terms of the current account balance.
This debate is clearly related to the fundamental debate on whether budgetary policy should be expansive or non-expansive, but there is no doubt that, if the argument used by some economic theorists is true, it is also the case that an expansive budgetary policy would force this adjustment by means of a real re-evaluation of the exchange rate to be even more dramatic than it would be in other circumstances.
Having said this, I will just add that, according to our information, growth is now clearly going to be lower. Inflation is still high, although it is lower than last November, and the budgetary measures of most interest to us in terms of assessing what is happening in Ireland in the future are, without doubt, going to be the saving plan laid down by the Irish Government, the impact of foot-and-mouth disease in Ireland, which is very significant, and, of course, increases in incomes and expenditure, which so far do not correspond with the budget.
However, as I said before, to draw conclusions in April on the figures for the end of the year seems to me to be far too risky."@en1
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