Local view for "http://purl.org/linkedpolitics/eu/plenary/2000-09-20-Speech-3-043"
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"en.20000920.4.3-043"2
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"Mr President, this is actually the third oil crisis we have had, but it contrasts sharply with the other two. They were political crises of man-made origin, and they came about in 1973 and 1979 with the fall of the Shah regime. For fifteen years now there have clear indications and studies – for example, Global 2000, the report compiled for Jimmy Carter – to the effect that there would be a real shortage in raw materials by the turn of the century. In other words, the third oil crisis we are experiencing now, is here to stay.
Whether the price drops again in the short term is of no consequence because there will be a steady upward trend in the long term. It even says in Colin Campbell’s study – anyone interested in having a copy can get one from me – that there will be a shortage of raw materials, i.e. oil, in the early years of the 21st century, the reason being that the production curve has passed its peak. I therefore believe that even demonstrations are onto a loser, because you can only squeeze so much juice from a lemon. We will still have oil, but it will not come cheap. In other words, the price of oil will rise to between USD 40 and 60 in the future. There are enough studies to this effect. Even if they should prove to be wrong, now is the time to consider and analyse them. Nor is it an OPEC crisis, because only 40% of the oil produced comes from OPEC countries; the remaining 60% comes from non-OPEC countries. If this was just a man-made crisis, the other oil producers could redress the balance."@en1
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